Bluesheet: MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2016
HAVE WE REACHED THE BOTTOM?
Welcome to the first Bluesheet edition of 2016. It's a new year, and a great opportunity time for a new outlook on the certified U.S. coin market. The general consensus for 2015 from dealers was that the market was weak with lagging collector enthusiasm, especially in the second and third quarters. The fourth quarter of 2015, however, gave some indications that the market decline had reached its bottom and levels had stabilized.
One leading indicator is that the size and frequency of the live auctions seems to have tapered off. Collectors are opting to hold on to their collections at current levels which tells us that inventory levels are dropping and we are cautiously predicting an uptick in early 2016.
This shouldn't come as a surprise, actually. Collectors seeking bargains in the rare coin market had little opportunity over the past decade as levels on many coins rose steadily. Profits eroded somewhat in 2014-15 and now it appears to a great buyer's market.
The Rosen Numismatic Advisory (RNA) – a specialized newsletter for serious coin investors – recently published their 2016-17 Crystal Ball Survey with interviews from industry experts. The panel of 5 experts, which included CDN Publisher, John Feigenbaum, made various predictions for the market including an emphasis that certified proof type coins represent a great value at current levels. (Note: contact information for the RNA can be found at the end of this article.)
DEALERS PREPARE FOR FUN SHOW IN TAMPA
A new year means the Florida United Numismatists' show must be around the corner! This year's event is being held in Tampa, Florida and we expect over 600 dealers to attend with booths. Heritage Auctions (ha.com) is the official FUN auctioneer with a large, exciting sale highlighted by the Dr. Peter Shireman Collection of Barber Half Dollars, as well as the finest-known example of the world famous 1894-S Barber dime.
The FUN Show is usually an excellent barometer of coming market conditions, and you can count on CDN to provide you with candid analysis of the show and overall market health.
To subscribe or inquire about the Rosen Numismatic Advisory, contact Maurice Rosen at: Numismatic Counseling, Inc; PO Box 38; Plainview, NY 11803. Email: